Sunday, January 07, 2007

Will China’s New Five-Year Plan Force U.S. Utilities to Ration Your Electricity?

Taking your electrical needs for granted? A new five-year plan announced by the Chinese government may put the reliability of your electrical supply at risk. China may snap up all the available uranium over the next few years. U.S. utilities depend upon uranium to power their nuclear reactors, which provide 20% of your electricity.

According to China’s Ministry of Land Resources, China plans to build up “sufficient reserves” of uranium and other minerals, in a new five-year government plan. The ministry said it would be stockpiling strategic reserves of uranium, copper, aluminum and other key minerals because of rising demand for those commodities. The Chinese also wish to avoid supply disruptions by hoarding uranium and other minerals, over the next few years.

Until now, you’ve probably taken for granted a steady, reliable source of electricity. A large part of your dependable energy came about because of the nuclear energy generated by the 103 nuclear reactors in 30 states. Without a steady supply of uranium to power those nuclear reactors, the U.S. electrical transmission network suffers a 20 percent loss. China’s new five-year plan to stockpile uranium had better be a Wake-Up Call to U.S. utilities. If they missed the import of China’s announcement, we are all going to be in a heck of lot of trouble before this decade ends.

Since June 2004, we have warned of supply disruptions for uranium. David Miller, who has since become President and Chief Operating Officer of Strathmore Minerals, argued at the time, “In my opinion, no one has any extra uranium to sell on the spot market. There’s just not excess inventory that people are unloading in the spot market.” We interviewed Miller again in November 2005, for an article entitled, “China Demand for Uranium, World Growth in Electricity Demand to Drive Uranium Price Higher.” Miller warned us, “China is the future wild card… what they are planning for nuclear is probably the most aggressive program in the world.” Miller added in his explanation, “All the new production is already factored into the future market for uranium. We’re underwater right now without building one more nuclear power plant.”

In mid April, during an interview with Sprott Asset Management Market Strategist Kevin Bambrough, we asked him about the Chinese. He answered, “Why shouldn’t they have strategic uranium reserves to supply their nuclear reactors? It makes sense to have a good stockpile of uranium considering the relative cost of nuclear power versus anything else.” And now, the Chinese plan to build up a strategic reserve of uranium for their aggressive nuclear program.

In another interview, also published in April, Gene Clark, CEO of TradeTech LLC warned us, “In reality, the U.S. utilities, which tend to wait longer to contract, may be the ones on the losing end because the Chinese and the Indians will contract early. The implication of current group-think is that the Chinese and Indians are not going to be able to find enough uranium for their new plants. But, they are committing for supplies way out into the future. When the U.S. utilities come to the market, they’re going to look around say, ‘Oh blankety- blank, what happened? Where’s the uranium?’ They’ll be the ones that sat around. I think that is what’s going to happen unless things really change in the way contracting is done in the United States.”